This review, originally written for the CSPG ‘Reservoir’, should be of interest to CSEG readers as well.

Lorne Samson, A.S.E.T.

Engineers and geologists have now been brought even closer together with the publication of two strategic papers on Alberta’s gas reserves in the August 1999 JCPT*.

The author, Lorne Samson, a 1964 SAIT grad has devoted all of his 35 years to the ERCB/AEUB to develop and analyze the many factors affecting gas reserves (e.g. drilling, size of pools, rates of decline).

I am putting my CSPG readers, not normally numerically inclined, on red alert. Samson warns in no uncertain terms... “a good portion ... of reserves ... will not be drilled or connected without a significantly higher gas price.” His other prediction: projected market demand will not be met in 2000. He is also urging industry to concentrate exploration west of the 5th and 6th while requiring a record number of gas well connections.

With the increased density of drilling, geological uncertainty has been lessened and the chances of finding the big ones has been reduced yet there still has to be the illusive plays waiting to be discovered. This will require all of our geological expertise, the main weapon in the campaign to satisfy Samson’s gloomy predictions.

The Saturday, October 2, 1999 issue of the Calgary Herald refers to a 39-page study by the NEB predicting increase in demand but ... “a simple steady increase ... will turn the trick”.

I really wonder ... what do you think?

*JCPT August 1999 pp. 54-65 “Alberta’s Drilling ...” “Gas Production and Decline in Alberta”



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